Sunday, March 2, 2008

Bayesian Analysis Favors Barack Obama

Methodology / Aug 2006 analysis (favors McCain)
Nov 2006 update (favors Obama)
Early Feb 08 update (favors Obama)
Late Feb 2008 update (favors Obama)

It's unclear whether either of the 08 updates involve Bayes at all, or are based entirely on prediction markets. (Prediction markets are very effective, but Bayes is more interesting to me personally.)