I built a popular video portal, along with a few other people, which TechCrunch aggressively predicted to fail. It went on to become incredibly successful, mainly due to its licensed content. I'd love to take credit but it really was the content, not the technology.
So I think there's a lot in this statement that arrogant geeks should wake up to:
Technophiles who think that the Internet is going to topple Hollywood studios, TV networks, and cable companies have their heads up their asses. That's what the analysts at Bernstein Research say -- in more polite language, of course -- inside the 80-page transcript out today from their confab this past Monday called "Web Video... Friend or Foe And To Whom?" The answer, it seems, is that Big Media can put the brakes on progress long enough to figure out how they’ll get paid.
However, I know a lot of people in entertainment, and they're all aware that the big scary monster which devoured music and newspapers is now eyeing them hungrily. Production slowed down for the last two years - between the writers and the actors, nobody's had any work, and the reason was negotiations with the studios about whether or not creators would get paid at all for content that went online. Technology's going to change things in Los Angeles, and nobody really knows yet how.